22 May 2025

China’s Clean Energy Revolution and America’s Carbon Legacy

by | posted in: Energy Transformation, The Rise of China | 0

Introduction

Before we begin, let me be clear: I’m not a China shill, nor am I under any illusions about the complexity of geopolitics or national interests. I was momentarily optimistic with the announcement of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), despite it being massively scaled back due to political resistance in the Senate—particularly from Democrats. My purpose here isn’t to idealize any country. It’s to follow the data, observe the trajectories, and write about the trends that are already reshaping the global energy and economic landscape.


In 2025, the world is standing at a critical inflection point. China has just recorded its first year-on-year CO₂ emissions decline driven not by economic downturn, but by an unprecedented surge in clean energy capacity. The implications are monumental. As the world’s largest current emitter but second-largest historical contributor, China’s energy trajectory will determine whether humanity can limit warming to under 2°C. Meanwhile, the United States remains the unshakable heavyweight of historical emissions, a title it is virtually guaranteed to hold for the rest of human history.

China: From Coal Giant to Clean Power Superpower
In 2024, China’s power sector emitted approximately 6.61 billion tonnes of CO₂, continuing to represent the lion’s share of the nation’s total emissions. Yet the same year, over 300 GW of new solar was installed, pushing the nation toward 1.5 TW of solar and wind capacity combined. By early 2025, emissions began to decline for the first time due to clean energy growth outpacing electricity demand. If China continues on this trajectory, the transformation could be historic.

Even more astonishing, China hit its 2030 renewable energy target—1.2 TW of solar and wind capacity—six years early, by June 2024. This milestone wasn’t accidental or reactionary; it was the outcome of a strategic, three-decade-long plan dating back to the early 1990s. Through successive Five-Year Plans, China invested in local manufacturing, subsidized early clean tech industries, and built the grid infrastructure to support massive renewable penetration. The clean energy surge of the 2020s is simply the payoff phase. Still, this rapid pace of industrial transformation comes with potential risks—not just technical, but economic. Overcapacity in battery and solar production, local government debt strain from infrastructure over-investment, and rising trade tensions with the West could create headwinds. Yet, China’s ability to absorb, adapt, and export these technologies continues to reinforce its position as a system-level disruptor. However, this transition also comes with operational hurdles, including intermittency, grid integration challenges, and curtailment risks that must be actively managed as renewable dominance grows.

Meanwhile, on the transport front, China is not just transitioning—it’s transforming. NEV (New Energy Vehicle) sales surpassed 40% in 2024 and are on track to reach 100% of new passenger vehicle sales by 2028, with some provinces expected to hit that target even earlier. Heavy trucks, buses, and commercial fleets are rapidly shifting to electric, supported by a rapidly expanding network of battery swap stations and advancements in long-range, low-cost LFP battery packs. Even electric aviation is beginning pilot deployment, with short-haul flights and cargo applications already under development. By 2030, China could realistically become the first major nation to electrify all road transport sectors, with electric aviation and green shipping expected to close the loop by 2035.

Under a realistic clean energy scenario, China could reduce its annual emissions by 30% from 2023 levels by 2035, landing at approximately 8.87 billion tonnes per year. Cumulative emissions would hit around 440 billion tonnes by then. But if China goes further—fully electrifying all transport and shifting to 100% clean electricity (80% renewables, 20% nuclear)—the impact would be seismic.

Full Electrification Scenario by 2035

This scenario is not a speculative fantasy—it’s becoming increasingly plausible due to China’s blistering pace of renewable energy deployment and electrified transport, trends that have outpaced expert forecasts and blindsided mainstream analysts year after year. The convergence of cost declines, industrial scale-up, and state-backed policy momentum is rewriting the rulebook in real time.

  • Electricity Sector (100%): Fully decarbonized. Clean power generation from solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear eliminates ~6.3 Gt of annual emissions.
  • Transport (85–90%): On-road transport is fully electrified, with emissions approaching zero. Aviation and shipping remain challenging but see partial substitution.
  • Industry & Buildings (85–90%): Deep electrification, heat pumps, and green hydrogen enable dramatic cuts. Full decarbonization remains difficult in a few industrial subsectors but major reductions are achieved.

These outcomes are not hypothetical—they’re grounded in observable momentum. China’s clean energy growth is accelerating so quickly that forecasts from IEA, BloombergNEF, and Western policy institutions are often obsolete within a year. New capacity additions regularly exceed the prior year’s ‘bull case’. This exponential curve makes full electrification by 2035 not just feasible, but increasingly probable—especially in a centrally planned economy with industrial policy levers and strategic incentives to dominate 21st-century energy markets.

Estimated emissions under this scenario by 2035: ~1.7–2.0 Gt/year (down from ~12.7 Gt).
Cumulative emissions 2025–2035: 65–75 Gt, placing China’s total at ~387–397 Gt by 2035.
The result: an 85%+ drop in emissions, fossil fuel dependence in collapse, and a clean tech surge of historic proportions—sending ripples through oil economies and lighting the path to a zero-carbon future.

Global Implications
This transformation wouldn’t just decarbonize China. It would crash global demand for oil and coal, trigger mass fossil fuel asset stranding, and cement China’s role as the undisputed clean energy superpower. Fossil-exporting nations would be forced into economic restructuring as petrostates face the erosion of their primary revenue base. Countries dependent on oil exports—such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria, and Venezuela—would experience fiscal shocks, social upheaval, or be compelled to reinvent their economies almost overnight.

Meanwhile, China would become the linchpin of a new energy order, dominating the manufacturing, deployment, and export of batteries, solar panels, EVs, electrolyzers, and grid-scale storage systems. Nations that once relied on geopolitical leverage through control of fossil fuel supply chains would see their influence wane, while supply chains for lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and semiconductors take center stage.

The global economic implications are equally staggering. Trillions in fossil fuel infrastructure—pipelines, refineries, LNG terminals—risk becoming stranded assets. Capital would flood instead into clean tech, smart grids, and climate-adaptive infrastructure. Financial markets would rapidly reprice risk around fossil exposure. The era of oil as a tool of global power would end.

Furthermore, geopolitical alliances could shift. Countries aligning with China’s clean energy vision—through trade, tech partnerships, or infrastructure investment—may gain preferential access to critical components, green financing, and development opportunities. The Belt and Road Initiative, already pivoting to green energy, could become a global blueprint for decarbonization.

In short, the Full Electrification Scenario by 2035 doesn’t just change emissions curves—it fundamentally redraws the map of global influence, economics, and resilience for the century ahead.

The U.S. Position: Legacy of Emissions
In contrast, the United States, while no longer the top annual emitter, will remain the world’s largest historical contributor to climate change. As of 2024, the U.S. has emitted approximately 537 billion tonnes of CO₂, compared to China’s 322 billion tonnes. Even if the U.S. sharply reduces emissions to ~3.28 Gt/year and adds just 36 Gt by 2035, it will end the decade at ~573 billion tonnes cumulative.

To catch up, China would need to emit over 12 Gt/year for 20+ more years—a physical and political impossibility if climate targets are to be met. The U.S.’s role as the biggest historical polluter is locked in.

Moral Reckoning and Opportunity
That legacy comes with responsibility. Cumulative emissions are what matter most for long-term planetary warming. The U.S. not only owes a climate debt to the world but must lead in financing global transitions, transferring technology, and decarbonizing domestically. While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has corrected the trajectory somewhat, spurring significant growth in solar, wind, and EV adoption, these gains are fragile. Donald Trump has been reelected and is actively fulfilling his promises at breakneck pace, openly working to dismantle climate regulations and gut clean energy policies. On his first day back in office, he signed executive orders prioritizing fossil fuel production, declared a ‘national energy emergency’ to fast-track oil and gas projects, and halted federal funding for clean energy initiatives under the IRA. He suspended new wind energy leases both onshore and offshore, initiated withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time, and began pushing to repeal the $7,500 EV tax credit—moves that collectively stall renewable growth and inflate the cost of EV adoption. Additionally, his administration froze federal climate-related funding and revoked dozens of Biden-era executive orders on clean energy and emissions regulations. These actions directly undermine the clean tech sector while signaling to global markets that the U.S. is retreating from climate leadership.

Even as Trump rolls back climate progress, it’s possible that Congress or state-level efforts could impose retaliatory measures—such as tariffs on Chinese EVs or solar panels. However, with China holding a significant cost advantage and complete supply chain dominance, such efforts may have limited effectiveness in altering the course of the global transition.—posing a real and immediate threat to America’s clean energy momentum. And while Trump reverses course, China is doubling down—accelerating clean energy investment, scaling EV infrastructure, and expanding its dominance in global supply chains. The divergence between the two powers is becoming not just economic, but existential.

If China continues accelerating and reaches full electrification and clean power dominance by 2035, it won’t just win the race to net zero—it will rewrite the rules of global power.

Conclusion
The contrast could not be clearer:

  • China: racing forward on clean energy, electrification, and economic transformation.
  • The U.S.: sitting atop an immovable mountain of historical emissions, its future reputation tied to what it does next.

One is building the future. The other must reckon with the past.

And history will remember both.

References

  1. China CO₂ Emissions Fall in Q1 2025
  2. China’s Renewable Capacity Hits 1.2 TW by June 2024
  3. U.S. Historical Emissions Total ~537 Gt CO₂
  4. China’s Cumulative Emissions Total ~322 Gt CO₂
  5. Trump’s 2025 Energy Rollbacks
  6. IEA Misjudged China’s NEV & Solar Growth
  7. China’s EV Market Share >40% in 2024
  8. Global Fossil Fuel Asset Risk & Stranded Infrastructure
  9. U.S. Clean Energy Expansion under the IRA
  10. China’s Green BRI Pivot