The 40c Smile: Immunity From Oil Shocks
Tonight the news warned fuel could jump 40 cents per litre next week. Iran. Dubai. Hormuz. My wife looked across at me and smiled. “Guess we won’t need to worry about that.” Not political.Not ideological.Structural. That smile is the energy … Continued
The 2027–2035 Tipping Points That Reshape Global Energy
In my previous piece, “Balance of Power – Assault of the Cost Curves,” I focused on the economics — how falling cost curves for solar, wind and storage are reshaping capital allocation. This post examines the system-level consequence of that … Continued
Balance of Power – Assault of the Cost Curves
The shift didn’t begin with politics. It began with price — and price does not negotiate. Wind and solar costs collapsed. Deployment surged. Storage scaled. Capital obeyed physics. By 2025, more than 83% of new global power investment flows to … Continued
The Storage Surge That Tames the Duck
Curtailment Is a Phase, Not a Flaw For years, critics of renewable energy have pointed to the “duck curve” as evidence that solar and wind destabilise the grid. In policy debates, media commentary, and investor briefings alike, the duck curve … Continued
Bettrification: Why Renewable Energy Systems Lead to Lower Prices
In June 2025, I laid the groundwork for this argument on EV Curve Futurist: the energy transition is not just about replacing fuels — it is about rewriting system architecture. That piece explored how storage, scale, and learning curves were … Continued
When the Innovators Enter the New Order
BMW, Mercedes and the Zero-to-Scale Challenge (2020–2025) This is not a sales comparison. It is a phase-change signal. When the companies that defined automotive innovation for half a century begin to experience relative compression against firms that barely existed five … Continued
The Great Electric BEV Reordering of 2025
The EV conversation is crowded with surface debates — China vs West, subsidies vs markets, policy vs politics. Those frames obscure the more important question. Strip away ideology and headlines, and only one structural issue remains: Who actually controls the … Continued
Global Auto Sales: When Compression Hits the P&L
Margins, Utilisation, and Capital Discipline in the EV Transition Executive Hook Global auto sales didn’t collapse. Profits did. In 2024, most of the world’s largest automakers still sold millions of vehicles. Headlines focused on volumes holding up. But beneath the … Continued
Global Auto Sales: The Compression Phase (2020–2028)
For years, the global auto industry has been framed as a simple story: incumbents vs EVs, disruption vs collapse, winners vs losers. That framing misses what is actually happening. What we are seeing instead is compression. Not sudden collapse. Not … Continued
Revising the Battery Cost Curve: Why 2025 Is $90/kWh
For years, $100/kWh has been treated as the symbolic tipping point for lithium‑ion battery packs — the moment electrification becomes economically irreversible across transport, energy, and industry. Over the past year, I repeatedly stress‑tested this assumption in debates with AI … Continued