⚙️ Beijing’s Dual Strike
On October 9 2025, China redrew the map of industrial power.
Two new MOFCOM decrees — Announcement No. 61 (rare earths) and Announcement No. 39 (lithium batteries & graphite) — together mark a decisive shift from market participation to materials command.
It’s not protectionism. It’s power projection by supply chain.
- No. 61 gives Beijing veto authority over any product containing ≥ 0.1% Chinese rare-earth content, even if assembled abroad.
- No. 39 restricts exports of high-end lithium batteries (≥ 300 Wh/kg), artificial graphite anodes, and key production technologies.
China has moved from dominating markets to disciplining them. Every motor, magnet, battery, and sensor that depends on Chinese inputs now runs through Beijing’s approval pipeline.
☀️ The Megawatt Gap: Solar as Strategy
In mid‑2025, renewables (solar + wind) produced more electricity than coal globally for the first time — 5,072 TWh vs 4,896 TWh, according to Ember’s Global Electricity Review and Electrek.
This milestone confirms that the clean‑energy transition is no longer theoretical; it’s already reshaping the global grid.
Unfortunately, while Washington debates tariffs and fossil subsidies, China is deploying solar at civilizational scale.
In just the first half of 2025, China added 256 GW of new solar capacity — more than twice the rest of the world combined (Ember Solar Report, 2025).
That’s more solar in six months than the entire United States has ever installed in its history.
America, meanwhile, is prioritizing oil and gas leases, while obstructing large-scale solar-wind-battery (SWB) deployment through red tape and fragmented incentives.
Being first to super-abundant clean electricity is Part 1 of how China wins and America loses.
🔋 Part 2: The Materials Chokehold
With the latest export controls, China now wields formal leverage over nearly every energy-transition and tech-hardware supply chain.
| Domain | Material Control | Global Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Computation | Gallium & Germanium (2023) | Restrains advanced semiconductor production |
| Motion | Rare Earths (2025 No. 61) | Tightens grip on EV motors, turbines, defense systems |
| Storage | Lithium & Graphite (2025 No. 58) | Controls next-gen batteries, anodes, and tech transfer |
Exports to the U.S. are only ~3% of China’s GDP. Chinese imports, by contrast, make up ~15% of the U.S. economy — and those imports are disproportionately high-tech products. If Beijing turns the tap, America stalls.
China is insulating itself with massive domestic markets, vertically integrated supply chains, and a decisive lead in energy self-sufficiency. It’s not decoupling; it’s outgrowing dependency.
📉 The Lithium Turning Point
The lithium market is standing at a true inflection point — not a cyclical bounce, but a structural transformation. Prices may have bottomed in late 2024, yet the real story isn’t about short-term recovery; it’s about exponential demand.
EVs, grid storage, and industrial electrification are compounding on steep S-curves, driving lithium consumption far beyond conservative forecasts. Many still model 4–4.5 Mt LCE demand by 2030, but that vastly underestimates the scale of the energy transition already underway.
In my detailed analysis — The Lithium Effect: Powering a New World — I outline how lithium demand could grow to 7–9 Mt LCE by early next decade, powered by compounding adoption in EVs, stationary storage, and new industrial applications. Supply will struggle to keep pace, but history shows that once demand becomes undeniable, capital rushes in, projects accelerate, and innovation compresses timelines.
- EVs: Global electric vehicle adoption continues to outpace even aggressive forecasts, creating a sustained pull on battery-grade lithium demand.
- BESS: Grid-scale energy storage systems are the silent giant — rapidly expanding as nations replace fossil baseload with renewables.
- Sodium-ion & flow batteries: These emerging chemistries will complement, not replace, lithium. They help share the load but rely on the same supply-chain momentum.
- Recycling: By 2030, second-life and recovered lithium will form a key pillar of supply, reinforcing a circular energy economy.
Adding to this, China’s tightening market controls and new export restrictions are reshaping the global lithium landscape. The government’s strategic grip on refining, pricing, and exports is designed to stabilize domestic margins and protect its downstream battery industries. While this limits low-cost oversupply in the short term, it also reduces volatility and strengthens long-term pricing confidence — effectively setting a global floor beneath lithium carbonate.
Western markets, forced to secure diversified supply chains, are responding with accelerated investments in extraction, refining, and recycling infrastructure. This is triggering a new phase of regionalization in lithium supply, where self-sufficiency becomes a strategic goal, not just an economic one.
This convergence — surging demand, tightening Chinese controls, and the rebirth of local supply chains — marks the turning point. Lithium is no longer just a commodity; it’s the foundation of energy sovereignty. This is the decade it steps out of its “battery metal” label and into its true role — the cornerstone of the electrified economy.
🇺🇸 America’s Reality Check
America is in deep trouble. China is executing a century-scale industrial strategy while the U.S. chases short-term optics.
Part 1: China builds limitless clean electricity capacity.
Part 2: It locks down the atoms of the energy‑tech economy — lithium, graphite, dysprosium, gallium.
Meanwhile, Washington bets on AGI/ASI or nuclear fusion as miracle escapes — a Hail Mary strategy.
It’s reckless.
The only viable counter‑path is clear:
- RAMP solar‑wind‑battery deployment at exponential pace.
- ONSHORE manufacturing of cells, magnets, and semiconductors.
- ACCELERATE humanoid robotics to offset labor and productivity constraints.
Without those three pillars, the West won’t just fall behind — it will be locked out of the next industrial cycle.
🔄 Cycles and the Road Ahead
Lithium’s prior hype–crash–rally cycles were warm‑ups. What comes next is exponential. EVs and grid storage follow steep S‑curves; demand compounds nonlinearly while supply remains slow, linear, and capital‑intensive.
By 2030, demand will exceed 7–9 Mt LCE, triple today’s levels. Recycling will soften the blow, and sodium‑ion will fill niches, but lithium remains the backbone of high‑energy mobility and storage.
2026 marks the structural flip: surplus becomes deficit. From there, volatility intensifies — tighter supply, higher prices, and recurring crunches as adoption outpaces capacity. This isn’t another boom‑bust; it’s the squeeze that defines the decade.
🧭 The Bottom Line
While China’s strategic dominance grants it immense leverage, it also entails certain risks — such as spurring rival nations to accelerate alternative supply chain development and creating short-term inefficiencies within its own economy.
China isn’t just exporting products anymore; it’s exporting industrial dependence.
Every new gigawatt of Chinese solar, every new rule over rare earths and lithium, is a move on the global chessboard of the future.
America can’t win this race by playing defense.
It must build, automate, and electrify faster than history has ever seen.
Otherwise, by the time the sun rises on 2030, the age of Chinese material supremacy won’t be something to prevent — it’ll be something the rest of the world lives under.