By Chris Meder — EV Curve Futurist
Linear minds in an exponential world — how our own psychology blinds us to disruption, and why battery storage is now rewriting the rules of energy.
The Psychology of Disruption
When it comes to disruption, people consistently underestimate its speed and scale. Human brains aren’t wired for exponential growth — we think in straight lines, tuned for safety and stability. This trait is evolutionary: avoiding the unknown once kept us alive. Yet it’s also why we struggle to recognize the opportunities hidden in change. So when adoption curves suddenly bend upward — or as those of us who follow them call it, an S-curve transition — most dismiss it as a short-term anomaly until it’s too late. Demand — whether for the internet, smartphones, or energy storage — is just the visible result of these deeper forces of change.
Incumbents thrive on this blind spot. They pump out FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), leaning on narratives of “stability” and “baseload” because they know human psychology craves familiarity and resists upheaval. By the time the disruption is undeniable, the incumbents are already on the chopping block.
As I explored in The Last Gasp, this isn’t hypothetical. Fossil incumbents actively weaponize these human blind spots with FUD: exaggerating intermittency, equating one-time material inputs with perpetual fuel burn, and reframing reliability as ‘baseload.’ Recognizing these tactics helps us see disruption more clearly for what it is: inevitable once the math and momentum align.
It’s worth remembering: humanity has always needed its adventurers and disruptors too. While most clung to safety, it was the risk-takers — explorers, inventors, innovators — who pulled us forward and often saved us from stagnation or extinction. Resisting change may feel safe, but embracing and shaping it is what ensures survival.
History’s Pattern
We’ve seen this cycle repeat throughout modern history:
- The Internet: In 1993, when I first logged on, most people dismissed the web as a toy. By 2000, the dot-com bubble had inflated — proof that people only understood the scale once it was already racing. Even then, the mainstream underestimated how the internet would transform shopping, entertainment, work, and human connection.
- Smartphones: In the mid-2000s, few foresaw how quickly they would cannibalize cameras, music players, navigation, and personal computing. Within a decade, they weren’t just phones — they were the center of modern life.
- Video Streaming: Netflix was mocked when it pitched streaming to Blockbuster in 2000. A decade later, Blockbuster was gone, streaming had gone mainstream, and television itself would never be the same.
- Digital Cameras: Kodak invented the first digital camera in 1975, then buried it to protect its film business. By the time the market tipped, Kodak was too late. An entire industry collapsed almost overnight.
These are not anomalies. They are case studies in how disruption works: dismissed at first, resisted by incumbents, then exploding into dominance once the adoption curve tips.
From EVs to BESS: The S‑Curve, Revisited
In The S‑Curve of EV Adoption I unpacked how technologies leap from niche to mainstream once they pass a tipping point — typically around the 5% adoption threshold identified by Diffusion of Innovation theory. That’s the moment the market shifts from Early Adopters to the Early Majority (often called “crossing the chasm”). After that, growth follows a steep S‑curve, driven by compounding cost declines, social proof, and better products.
Why modern S‑curves rise faster than those of the past:
- Convergence: Multiple technologies improve together (for EVs: batteries, software, autonomy, and renewables), multiplying impact.
- Existing infrastructure: We aren’t laying roads from scratch; charging, grid interconnection, and manufacturing can scale on top of what exists.
- Informed consumers: Total cost of ownership and convenience are widely understood; information spreads instantly.
- Policy tailwinds: Standards, incentives, and phase‑out dates accelerate adoption once the economics already make sense.
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are now entering this same S‑curve — but with even more compression in time. Storage is modular, deploys quickly, and pairs directly with surging solar. As costs fall and paybacks shrink to a few years, BESS is “crossing the chasm” into the Early Majority across utilities, businesses, and homes.
Energy: The Biggest Disruption Yet
Now we’re watching the same pattern play out in energy.
In my earlier blogs — The Great EV Shift, The Lithium Effect, and The Energy System Rewired — I’ve shown how electric vehicles (EVs), solar, and wind are scaling faster than almost anyone thought possible.
The numbers prove it:
- EVs are on track for 90% adoption by 2030.
- Lithium has gone from obscure metal to the cornerstone of the modern economy.
- Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are poised to deliver 3 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2027 and as much as 10–12 TWh by 2030.
A Note on the 90% EV Claim: This forecast refers to new car sales, not the entire fleet. Yes, there are hurdles — from charging infrastructure to supply chains — but these are forms of friction, not barriers. Exponential adoption has always overcome such hurdles once tipping points are reached, just as we saw with the internet and smartphones. Recognizing the distinction between sales flow and fleet stock is key to understanding why 90% adoption of new EV sales by 2030 is both bold and plausible.
And look at solar: in China, monthly solar generation has already surged past U.S. nuclear in 2025. Sure, China is still adding nuclear capacity, but context matters. Nuclear remains only a sliver of new capacity. Today, 84% of new energy investment is going into solar plus batteries. That’s where the real scaling is. China knows renewables paired with storage can power the entire grid — and they’re racing there, leaving legacy generation behind.
Figure 1: In 2025, China’s monthly solar generation has already overtaken U.S. nuclear output, underscoring just how rapidly solar + batteries are scaling compared to legacy nuclear. What took decades for nuclear to build, solar has eclipsed in a matter of years—with storage making it even more formidable.
Figure 2: Global solar installations surged 64% in H1 2025, marking a clear acceleration in capacity additions worldwide. Deployment reached 380 GW by mid-2025—already surpassing the 350 GW milestone that wasn’t hit until September in 2024. This isn’t just a China story; it’s global. Each year, we’re adding more—and doing it faster.
This is disruption at planetary scale. The earlier chart comparing China’s solar output to U.S. nuclear highlights this, and the latest H1 2025 build-out data makes it even clearer. Together, Figures 1 and 2 tell the story: China racing ahead as the clear leader, and the world following the same exponential trajectory. The pattern is unmistakable — disruption unfolding in real time, both nationally and globally.
The Battery Storage Tipping Point
The clearest signal? The CABIA (China Battery Industry Association) data for the first half of 2025. Installations in just six months are already brushing up against what used to be full-year totals only a few years ago. That’s not theory — it’s exponential growth unfolding before our eyes.
At current growth rates, 10 TWh of installed BESS by 2030 would exceed even the most ambitious industry forecasts. Whenever I mention that figure, I’m usually met with looks suggesting I’m out of my mind. Yet such a massive level of deployment would clearly require millions of tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), triggering a scramble across mining, recycling, and alternative chemistries such as sodium-ion, lithium-sulfur, and vanadium flow batteries.
A Note on the 10 TWh Forecast: Some argue this scale is unrealistic given today’s supply constraints. But history shows supply follows demand in exponential markets. Recycling, alternative chemistries, and massive new investments are already accelerating. Just as solar scaled beyond early projections, storage will too.
And here’s the key point: the economics already make sense. In China, commercial battery storage pays for itself in less than two years, and grid-scale storage in under five. No subsidies required. That’s disruption math at work.
Why We Miss It — and What Buddhism Teaches
We miss exponential change because we’re wired to see the world in straight lines. Stability feels safe, uncertainty feels threatening. Incumbents exploit this bias, leaning on “baseload” myths and pumping out fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
But Buddhism offers a lens here: impermanence is not something to fear, it’s the natural order of life. Everything changes. Resisting change is suffering; accepting it brings clarity. When we see disruption as part of life’s impermanence, we stop clinging to the old and start preparing for the new.
This blends with our evolutionary story: resistance may have kept us safe from predators, but embracing change and venturing into the unknown is what made us thrive. That duality — caution and courage — is still with us today. The challenge is knowing when safety serves us, and when survival demands boldness.
The Coming Disruption of Labour and Food
Energy is only one side of the disruption story. Another is human labour itself. Within the next 10 to 15 years, robots and artificial intelligence will be able to perform nearly every task currently done by humans. A child born today may reach adulthood in a world where traditional jobs are scarce, or even obsolete. That sounds alarming, but it follows the same exponential logic: technology scales faster than we expect, and once the tipping point is reached, entire systems transform rapidly.
Just as energy incumbents cling to baseload myths, social and political systems cling to the assumption that work defines human worth. Yet disruption here is inevitable. The challenge for us as a species will be to redesign our economic and cultural systems to adapt. Resisting this change is no safer than resisting the energy transition. Accepting it — and building new frameworks for purpose, community, and survival — will be imperative.
And again, evolution provides the lesson: humans survived by balancing caution with courage. Staying with the tribe and repeating known tasks gave us safety, but venturing out, experimenting, and adapting gave us progress. As labour disruption looms, that same duality applies. Playing safe may feel comfortable, but embracing the shift and shaping it to serve humanity is what will ultimately secure our survival.
Food production will also be disrupted. The rise of cellular agriculture and precision fermentation is set to transform how we feed ourselves. Instead of resource‑intensive animal farming, meat, dairy, and protein can be produced directly from cells and microbes, using far less land, water, and energy. This will upend agriculture as we know it, displacing traditional farming in much the same way robots will displace jobs. The benefits — lower emissions, healthier diets, resilient supply chains — mirror the exponential change happening in energy.
Looking Ahead: This section is just the beginning of a much larger conversation. Future posts will explore the societal and economic impacts of both labour and food production disruption in greater depth — from universal basic income to rethinking agriculture and human purpose in a world where machines and microbes do much of the work.
One for the History Books
From rotary phones to smartphones, from Blockbuster to Netflix, from coal to renewables — disruption doesn’t creep, it transforms.
The insanely fast pivot now underway to home and grid-scale battery storage is another transformation, soon to be followed by the rise of industrial and household robots at unprecedented scale, and a transition from animal agriculture to cellular agriculture and precision fermentation. Together, these shifts will reshape the way we generate, store, consume, and even produce food and labor.
This isn’t just another energy story. It’s a transformation for the history books — big time. ⚡🔋
Key Terms Explained
- S‑curve: The classic logistic adoption pattern where growth is slow at first, then steep after a tipping point, and finally levels off at saturation.
- 5% tipping point: A commonly observed threshold (from Diffusion of Innovation theory) where technologies move from niche to mass‑market momentum.
- Crossing the Chasm: The jump from Early Adopters to the Early Majority when products become practical, affordable, and widely trusted.
- Technology convergence: When improvements in multiple fields (e.g., batteries, software, manufacturing) reinforce each other to accelerate adoption.
- Rupture point: The phase where change becomes rapid and irreversible as the new system outcompetes the old.
- EV (Electric Vehicle): A car powered fully by batteries instead of an internal combustion engine.
- BESS (Battery Energy Storage System): Utility‑scale or distributed systems of batteries that store electricity from the grid or renewables and release it when needed.
- TWh (Terawatt-hour): A unit of energy equal to one trillion watt-hours — used to measure very large amounts of electricity, such as national energy storage or generation.
- LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent): A standard measure for lithium supply and demand in the battery industry, allowing comparison across different compounds and products.
- CABIA (China Battery Industry Association): An industry body that tracks China’s battery manufacturing and storage deployment; frequently cited for half‑year and annual installation figures.