The story of China’s EV market in 2025 isn’t just about record sales. It’s about the rapid divergence between BEVs and PHEVs—and how the rise of bigger batteries is erasing the last advantages hybrids once held.
The Battery Size Boom
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and analysis by Counterpoint Technology Market Research
In 2024, the average BEV in China carried a battery pack of around 60–65 kWh. That was already larger than the global average, but 2025 marks a clear inflection point. With brands like NIO, Zeekr, Xiaomi, XPeng, and IM Motors pushing 90–100 kWh packs as the new standard, China’s BEV average is projected to reach 70–80 kWh this year. By 2026–27, the average could be closer to 80–90 kWh, putting long-range electric driving into the mainstream.
This shift is driven by two forces:
- Falling costs: Pack prices for LFP and NCM batteries keep dropping, making larger capacities affordable in mass-market cars.
- Infrastructure gains: The rollout of 500–600 kW ultra-fast charging means drivers no longer need a petrol backup for long trips.
PHEVs Lose Their Edge
While BEVs are quickly gaining ground, it’s worth noting that PHEVs still retain some advantages in certain contexts—particularly for buyers in rural areas with patchy charging infrastructure or for budget-conscious consumers facing higher upfront BEV costs.
Just a year ago, many Chinese automakers were still announcing fresh investment into plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and range-extended EVs (EREVs). But the market is already moving on.
- In the first half of 2025, BEV sales grew ~38% YoY, while PHEVs managed only ~26%.
- In August, BYD’s BEV sales surged, but its PHEV sales actually declined year-on-year.
- Consumer psychology is shifting: when a BEV offers 700–900 km CLTC range and recharges in minutes, the case for buying a dual-drivetrain hybrid weakens fast.
The pattern echoes Norway’s earlier transition. PHEVs held a mid-phase role but quickly lost relevance once BEVs achieved long range and affordable pricing.
Strategic Pivot Coming
The result? Many Chinese brands that only recently committed to new hybrid lineups may be forced to pivot again—this time toward an exclusively BEV future. Hybrids won’t vanish overnight, but the trend is unmistakable:
- Entry-level BEVs are eating into the lower-priced PHEV market.
- Mid-to-premium BEVs with 90–100 kWh packs are demolishing the rationale for high-end PHEVs.
- Export markets, especially in Europe, are increasingly hostile to hybrids, favoring zero-emission only.
Beyond Cars: The Untapped Demand
Most lithium demand forecasts fail to consider how this transition interacts with other explosive growth markets. Bigger BEV batteries mean each unit consumes more lithium, compounding total demand even if sales growth were to stay constant. On top of that:
- BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems): Driven by record solar and wind deployments, grid-scale lithium demand is rising exponentially (IEA Report on Global BESS Growth). China, the US, and Europe are all scaling battery storage at terawatt-hour levels.
- Heavy transport: Trucks, buses, and long-haul commercial EVs are adopting packs in the 300–600 kWh range, far larger than those used in passenger cars.
- Other lithium use cases: From two-wheelers to robotics to industrial storage, lithium’s versatility ensures widespread adoption.
Competing chemistries—sodium-ion, zinc, or flow batteries—show promise in niche or low-cost scenarios (World Bank Report on Battery Alternatives and Nature Review on Sodium-Ion). However, test deployments reveal limitations: low energy density, shorter cycle life, or higher system costs in high-energy applications. These will supplement, not replace, lithium.
Visualizing the Shift
China’s BEV battery sizes have diverged sharply from the global average. In 2018, both markets hovered near 45 kWh. By 2024, China averaged 60–65 kWh, while the global mean was closer to 57–60 kWh. Projections for 2025 put China in the 70–80 kWh range and climbing toward 90 kWh by 2027, while the global curve lags several years behind. This divergence highlights how China’s EV market is driving higher energy demand sooner, squeezing out PHEVs and magnifying lithium consumption. For non-technical readers: in simple terms, China’s typical electric car battery is growing much faster than the global average, meaning Chinese BEVs need more lithium per vehicle—and that accelerates the demand curve well ahead of other regions.
| Year | China Avg BEV Pack (kWh) | Global Avg BEV Pack (kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 45 | 45 |
| 2020 | 50 | 48 |
| 2022 | 55 | 53 |
| 2024 | 62 | 58 |
| 2025 (proj.) | 75 | 65 |
| 2027 (proj.) | 90 | 72 |
Takeaway: Larger batteries in China’s BEVs not only signal the end of PHEV relevance but also magnify lithium demand at a pace global forecasts have underestimated.
The Big Picture
China’s EV revolution is accelerating faster than even optimistic forecasts. As battery sizes rise and charging speeds soar, PHEVs are being squeezed from both ends. At the same time, the world is entering a multi-sector lithium supercycle, where passenger EVs, trucks, and grid batteries all compete for supply.
What was once marketed as a “bridge technology” may find its bridge collapsing far sooner than automakers expected. And for lithium? The bridge isn’t collapsing—it’s expanding into every sector of the clean energy economy.
The lesson for 2025 is clear: in the world’s largest EV market, the future is BEV-only—and it’s arriving years ahead of schedule.
Further Reading
- China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)
- Counterpoint Technology Market Research
- Norwegian EV Policy – Elbil Association
- IEA Report on Global BESS Growth
- World Bank Report on Battery Alternatives
- Nature Review on Sodium-Ion